Who blinked first may be beside the point. What the administration seems to want–and did manage to get–might be termed constructive ambiguity. The latest talks with North Korea, the 18th meeting in 10 months, produced an agreement that raises as many questions as it settles. But it keeps the emphasis on negotiation, rather than on confrontation, and it nudges Pyongyang in the right direction. If the deal failed to satisfy U.S. hawks, it soothed an anxious Asia, which fears an isolated and angry neighbor.
North Korea’s nuclear threat is hardly gone; the CIA believes it may already have a device. The deal gives inspectors access to seven known sites to determine if the “continuity of safeguards”–the elaborate surveillance of nuclear materials and equipment–has been maintained since the last inspection months ago. “If inspectors get in there quickly, they can reconstruct the data and make up for what has been lost so far,” says an administration official involved in the talks. it’s unclear whether Pyongyang will agree to continuing inspections, or what actions Washington would take if North Korea has diverted fissile material. “Look.” says outgoing Defense Secretary Les Aspin, “it’s step one of a much longer process that still has to play out.”
The next step is to bring in the inspectors to find out what North Korea thinks it has agreed to. But even if there’s a meeting of the minds and inspections start in the next few weeks, the issue of those suspect sites, and whether Pyongyang has a significant plutonium stockpile, remains unresolved. Those questions won’t be addressed until the so-called “third round” of formal talks that will take place if and when North Korea resumes its dialogue with South Korea on making the peninsula a nuclear-free zone. At that time, say State Department officials, Washington will insist on full compliance with NPT and, in exchange, announce the cancellation of the annual U.S.–South Korean “Team Spirit” military exercises and the start of normalized economic ties.
This open-ended approach pleases America’s Asian partners. For Japan, China and South Korea–all within range of North Korea’s missiles–deterrence has kept the peace for 40 years. What’s unknowable is whether Washington has set a bad precedent for dealing with the next nuclear renegade.
